Why I think Delhi is headed for a hung assembly…

Delhi elections are just around the corner. Election analysis reports are beginning to surface along with pre-poll predictions. All the three pre-poll surveys conducted for Delhi 2013 elections predict a different outcome. So I thought of digging the data from the past elections and see what they suggest.

Looks like the Congress is slowly losing its vote share while BJP is gradually gaining. In the last 15 years, Congress’ share has dipped to 40% from 47%, where as BJP has increased its share from 33% to 36% This is pretty clear from the Total Votes’ Share (No of votes as a percentage of total eligible voters) and the Polled Votes’ Share (No of votes as a percentage of the total votes polled).

Total Votes

Similar is the case with the total number of seats won by Congress and BJP. The seat share, however, is not as close a contest as the vote share is.

Seats

With Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) jumping into elections, the scenario has become even more interesting. AAP is expected to cut into the vote shares of both BJP and Congress though we don’t know who is going to lose how much.

My prediction is Delhi is headed for a hung assembly with advantage to BJP. I might be totally wrong and this isn’t a scientific predition. It is part based on projecting the past analysis for this year and the other part is based on assumptions. We will know the final verdict on Dec 8, 2013.

15th Lok Sabha – Story So Far

Infographic on how the 15th Lok Sabha has worked so far.
There has been a lot of news about how ineffective the 15th Lok Sabha has been in its functioning, more so when compared to the Rajya Sabha. I pulled out some of the data published across various websites like the Data Porta, The Hindu, PRS Research etc and compiled them into a simple infographic. This is my first attempt at making an infographic like this and all comments are appreciated.
Info

Independent MPs in the LokSabha

In the last 60 years, India has seen 4,665 MPs being elected to the Lok Sabha from over 140 political parties.  4242 of them were men and 316  women.
Information about our Members of the Parliament both in the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha, was recently uploaded in the Data Portal of India.  I consolidated all the basic information of the Members of the Parliament into one single .CSV file and converted it into a Mysql database (both of them can be found here).  I then ran specific queries to get the data I wanted to analyse and used google fusion tables to visualise them. Below are the first three visualisations.
1) Independent Members of the Parliament in the Lok Sabha from different states.
2) Independent Members of the Parliament organised by the sessions of Lok Sabha
3) Male/Female ratio in the Lok Sabha
*Some constituencies have changed and now are in different states as compared to their original state. I’ve counted them according to the present state where the constituency falls.
I plan to create more such visulaisations out of this dataset and add more data to this dataset too. If you want a specific visulaisation or data to be added, let me know and I will try to do it.
Independent Members of the Parliament – Statewise


Independent Members of the Parliament – Lok Sabha wise


Members of the Parliament – Male/Female

Male
4242
Female
316
NA
7