Last 9 Tamilnadu assembly elections explained in 9 charts

9 interesting patterns emerge when the 2016 TamilNadu assembly elections data is analysed and compared with that from the last 30 years.
In the last 32 years, an incumbent government has never won an election. Though the pattern has been continuing, the difference has narrowed down.
Though women formed almost 50% of the electorate, the number of women voting were marginally less than men.
The number of people voting has been consistently going up in the last 15 years. 78% of the electorate voted in the 2011 election. The election commission is gunning for 100% polling in the 2016 elections.

Barring 1996 elections, the DMK alliance has never got more than 50% of the vote share. In fact, in the 2006 election, DMK received lesser votes than AIADMK though they won more seats.
Regional parties get the lions share of votes and win. The trend is only becoming stronger in the recent years with parties like PMK and DMDK beginning to make a dent.
The national parties have been trying to make a comeback in recent years but collectively they won less than 10% of the seats in the last election. BJP has never won more than 4 seats in the last 9 elections.
Corresponding to the number of seats, the vote share of the national parties have also been on a falling trend. They are trying to make a comeback in the recent years.
82% of all the candidates who contested in the last election fortfeited their deposit. 1989 elections saw the highest number of candidates (3046).

Though women form nearly 50% of the electorate, their representation in the assembly is very less. 1991 saw the most number of women (32) being elected to the assembly.

Why I think Delhi is headed for a hung assembly…

Delhi elections are just around the corner. Election analysis reports are beginning to surface along with pre-poll predictions. All the three pre-poll surveys conducted for Delhi 2013 elections predict a different outcome. So I thought of digging the data from the past elections and see what they suggest.

Looks like the Congress is slowly losing its vote share while BJP is gradually gaining. In the last 15 years, Congress’ share has dipped to 40% from 47%, where as BJP has increased its share from 33% to 36% This is pretty clear from the Total Votes’ Share (No of votes as a percentage of total eligible voters) and the Polled Votes’ Share (No of votes as a percentage of the total votes polled).

Total Votes

Similar is the case with the total number of seats won by Congress and BJP. The seat share, however, is not as close a contest as the vote share is.


With Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) jumping into elections, the scenario has become even more interesting. AAP is expected to cut into the vote shares of both BJP and Congress though we don’t know who is going to lose how much.

My prediction is Delhi is headed for a hung assembly with advantage to BJP. I might be totally wrong and this isn’t a scientific predition. It is part based on projecting the past analysis for this year and the other part is based on assumptions. We will know the final verdict on Dec 8, 2013.